Reality check: Fewer post-secondary students means fewer highly skilled workers that Ontario needs

By Olamipo Ogunnote 

Olamipo Ogunnote is Director, Advocacy & Strategic Partnerships, at Ontario Student Voices. 

Post-secondary education in Ontario is in a crisis. For too long, the higher education sector has depended on international students to supplement funding, and as those days begin to dwindle, it is time for everyone to be concerned about what comes next. 

It's important to provide context as to how we got here. The decision to rely on international students as a funding mechanism is not the result of any single government's actions. Since before the 1990s, operating grants for public colleges have steadily declined and failed to keep pace with inflation.

Coupled with low domestic student enrollment and federal and provincial policy changes that loosened immigration rules and encouraged international student enrollment, both levels of government over the last 40 years have incentivized the post-secondary system to prioritize recruiting international students, albeit for different purposes. 

In 2021, Ontario’s Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk reported that 68 percent of colleges' tuition revenue – totaling $1.7 billion – came from international students, representing about 30 percent of total enrollment. Lysyk warned the ministry and post-secondary institutions about their heavy reliance on these students.

With the federal government tightening the immigration pipeline, the sector faces significant financial risks. A 50-percent reduction in the primary source of students, who account for over two-thirds of tuition revenue, will have staggering consequences.

Ultimately, it is students who will bear the brunt of these impacts. 

Here's how: First, there will be massive reductions in services at a time when mental health challenges are reaching record highs for students. A 2022 survey found that 66.5 percent of Ontario postsecondary students reported a decline in mental health since beginning their studies. This age demographic, commonly ranging from 18-24, is a critical period for mental health diagnosis, with three-quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders appearing by age 24.

Research further indicates that these demographics face heightened risks for stress, depression and even suicide.

In times of financial crisis, support services are the first to go; we've already seen that Kingston-based St. Lawrence College has cut over 30 administrative support positions, and as the situation worsens, more colleges will begin to make these decisions. 

That means your sons, daughters, brothers and sisters lose access to the mental health counselors they rely on during times of stress and crisis. It means the placement advisor who helps them secure the internships and co-op opportunities critical for their career success is no longer there. 

It means tutoring centers, writing labs and other academic support services that help students stay on track and excel are scaled back or eliminated.

It means fewer advisors to guide them through course selection, career counselors to help them transition into the workforce, and staff to assist students with disabilities or other accommodations they need to succeed.

Finally, it means larger class sizes and less one-on-one interaction with instructors, making it harder for students to access the personalized attention they need.

Program closures have wide-ranging detrimental effects

Program closures have already started, and we will see more. Centennial College in Toronto has announced it is suspending 49 programs, Fleming College in Toronto has eliminated 29 programs, Seneca College has temporarily closed its Markham campus, and Confederation College in Thunder Bay expects that the decline in revenue will threaten the sustainability of programs in engineering fields, early childhood education, and dental hygiene.

Mohawk College in Hamilton has suspended 16 programs and started laying off support staff and individuals in administration roles, including the dean of students.  

Mississauga-based Sheridan College is expecting a $112-million drop in revenue next year and is suspending 40 programs and reviewing 27 others.

What does this mean for students or their families? When a program gets cut for an already enrolled student, the effects can be highly detrimental. A program cut can result in wasted years of work if they ultimately have to transfer to a new program or institution.

For many students, particularly those in more specialized or niche programs, it may be difficult to find equivalent courses elsewhere, leading to delays and additional costs. 

When students enroll in a specific program, they often form close bonds with classmates, professors and support staff. What happens when they have to transfer schools and leave their communities and find a new place to live in, potentially an even more expensive community, at a time of affordability crisis for students? 

When Fleming College closed programs, we spoke with many students worried about what came next for them and the general anxiety of potentially having to transfer schools. Some took programs that weren't offered anywhere else.

When the federal government announced changes to the post-graduation work permit programs, students were concerned about how many other changes would be coming that would affect them, as well as potentially losing all the services they rely on. Not only that, but the prospective international students we spoke to no longer consider Canada as an ideal place for their education. 

It will take a collective effort to begin solving this crisis. For us, it means sounding the alarm and advocating to the government to invest in students. You also have a role to play.

Let your elected officials know that you value prioritizing and supporting students. Post-secondary education falls within provincial jurisdiction, and we need to remind them that education is an investment. Your voice matters in this fight for our students' future. 

To help solve this crisis that desperately needs addressing, we need to see:

• An immediate increase in operating grant funding to provide much-needed stability to the sector and serve as the bare minimum to take us to where we need to be. Ontario has ranked last in per-student public post-secondary education funding for most of the last four decades.
• An increase in special purpose grants like the mental health worker grants would provide much-needed funding to support hiring campus mental health workers in Ontario. In 2018, Ontario colleges employed only 217 counselors to serve 344,580 students –  that is 1589 students per counselor. 

Impact on Ontario’s workforce, industries and economy

But if you’re not a student, why should any of this matter?

When your fridge breaks down, who do you call to fix it? When your small business has an electrical issue, who solves it? What about the nurses in our hospitals and the early

childhood educators shaping young minds? These are the roles college students are stepping into. 

Canada, particularly Ontario, faces a massive labour challenge, especially in the skilled trades. Ontario will need over 100,000 skilled workers to support industries critical to its economy. While the impact of these shortages may not be felt immediately, the consequences will become unavoidable in the next decade if action isn't taken now. 

Consider the housing crisis: 10 years ago, prices began to rise sharply, and experts raised alarms. But little was done, and now an entire generation of young Canadians struggles to envision owning a home.

Ontario is heading toward a similar crisis in the labour market. The province will need over 100,000 skilled workers to sustain industries vital to its economy. 

Yet we face low domestic student enrollment, reduced international student enrollment, stagnant funding, cuts to support services and the elimination of programs.

This raises the pressing question: How will we support students, the post-secondary system and fill the essential sectors and services that depend on college graduates?

For years, organizations like ours have been sounding the alarm about the unsustainability of the post-secondary education system. Today, we're raising another urgent concern: the consequences of failing to invest in students and the post-secondary system. Supporting students isn't just an educational issue – it's a workforce issue, an economic issue, a community issue, and a you issue.

Because if we fail to invest in students at this critical juncture, what comes next? To get involved: 

Reach out to your Member of Provincial Parliament – input your address/postal code, and it will let you know who the MPP for your riding is; send an email to them letting them know you value investments into students and post-secondary education. You can also reach out to info@ontariostudentvoices.ca. 

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