John Stone, retired, Bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Science muzzling and climate change

By John Stone

No science, no evidence, no truth, no democracy. This has become the rallying cry of scientists and those that support science in this country. It is in response to the sad and extensive litany of injustices done to science and scientists in Canada over the past few years. Articles deploring this treatment have appeared in media stories in Canada and around the world, causing some in the scientific community no end of embarrassment.

During the days of George W Bush, scientists in the United States were silenced or chose to remain silent, according to a recent editorial in the New York Times, the situation in Canada is now much worse.

At the same time the federal government's support of research into the free exploration of new knowledge and understanding has been cut back and preference given to industrial development despite the evidence that such basic research is often the well-spring of innovation. The reduction in the systematic and scientific monitoring of socioeconomic and environmental indicators further limits essential information for wise policy-making.

Despite the media interest, we have not been having a well-informed national debate on science and public policy in Canada. There has been selective data and spin on all sides. We have not had full transparency and only partial truths. We know, for example, some federal scientists have been gagged through a few well-publicized stories and a lot of anecdotes. While some scientists have spoken to the media, we don't know the extent to which their questions and answers were scripted or overseen. And many of the cut-backs have been hidden in omnibus budget documents.

survey reveals widespread concern

Now we have a survey undertaken by the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada (PIPSC) that at last gives us some quantitative evidence. The results are deeply disturbing. According to the survey, 90% of federal government scientists feel they are not allowed to speak freely to the media about the work they do. Nearly one-quarter (24%) of respondents have been directly asked to exclude or alter information for non-scientific reasons and over one-third (37%) have been prevented in the past five years from responding to questions from the public and media. This suggests that the scientific effort paid for by Canadian tax dollars is being constrained and the public is being deprived of the scientific information necessary for them to be fully engaged in public policy.

impact on climate change

The threat of climate change is an example of a quintessential public policy issue, where science is key and needs to be heard. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently reported that warming of the climate system is now unequivocal and that humans are the dominant cause. Canadian scientists made significant contributions to this report and the Canadian government signed off on the Summary for Policymakers. This evidence cannot be ignored or denied; it demands a response.

For the first time, the IPCC provides an estimate of just how much we can emit if we want to avoid what governments have agreed would be dangerous interference with the climate system – essentially to keep temperatures rising no more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately we have already used up more than half of that estimate and it could be gone in a few decades if we continue to emit at our present rate. Thus the need to respond is becoming increasingly urgent.

There would seem to be some encouragement in that emissions do seem to have declined somewhat. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently reported that global emissions in 2012 were half of what they were during the past few years. Nevertheless, one year's data doesn't make a trend. According to the IEA, last year's data provide no grounds for complacency: we are not on track to meet the 2°C target and, more likely, business as usual will see us reaching 4°C by the end of the century.

targets missed

Recently, Environment Canada revealed in a quietly released report that Canada is still far from meeting the government's target of reducing our emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. In fact, the gap is projected to grow due largely to the increase in the extraction of oil from the tar sands. Despite the assurances of ministers, present measures will result in Canada achieving barely half of its commitment to emission reductions. Our level of ambition continues to be inadequate.

Canadians, however, have taken notice. A recent poll commissioned by Canada 2020 shows more than 80% of Canadians are convinced that climate change is a reality and an almost equal proportion is concerned by the threat it poses. Opinion is divided over what economic instrument should be used to achieve emission reductions, be it a price on emissions or more aggressive regulations. What is evident from this poll is that more than three-quarters of Canadians want the federal government to take the lead.

Scientists, including several in Canada, put the threat of climate change on the public policy agenda. The 1988 Toronto Conference on The Changing Atmosphere was a landmark event. Since then the scientific reports of the IPCC have successfully raised the awareness of the issue and progressively strengthened the confidence in the science. Canadian scientists' contributions have been and continue to be world-class. We have the science; we have the evidence; now we need to involve Canadians in an open, well-informed and democratic process that will guarantee equitable and sustainable solutions.

John Stone is a retired public servant who managed the federal climate research program and served on the Bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.