Experts look out to 2040

If Canada wants to become a leading innovative nation by 2040, what policies and programs should be instituted in the next six years to improve the odds of achieving its objective? Will the nation overcome its reliance on natural resources and build a more diverse economy driven by strong technology demand, a mobile, skilled workforce and healthy exports?

That was the scenario facing more than 60 policy makers and business and academic leaders who participated in a two-day foresight symposium in Ottawa last month. Organized by the Foresight Synergy Network (FSN) of Canada, the event is the first in a two-part initiative that seeks to stimulate and guide policy as it relates to public and private sector program development, investment strategy and risk mitigation. The second part of the initiative will take place in late April with a report containing recommended calls for action slated for wide dissemination in June.

FSN was created in 2007 and is chaired by foresight veteran Jack Smith, who led similar initiatives at the National Research Council Office of the National Science Advisor and Defence R&D Canada before becoming adjunct professor of Technology and Strategy at the Univ of Ottawa's Telfer School of Management in 2010.

For the Ottawa symposium, participants were asked to employ foresight to examine four potential innovation scenarios and two cross cutting thematic scenarios to determine potential future steps. The four scenarios ranged from highly positive to negative (see chart) and determine what steps were required to support a high standard of living. Participants were asked to explore lifestyles and innovation within each scenario with a focus on plausibility.

Scenario ‘A'

Under the most optimistic scenario, Canada has evolved into a highly innovative nation in which a dynamic, flexible innovation system is fuelled by a culture in which risk-taking and entrepreneurship are firmly entrenched. There is a continual replenishment of human capital in which customized skill sets lead to a network of advanced, flexible city states with effective healthcare regimes. Canada competes successfully around the globe through powerful collaborative partnerships, making the Canada brand highly respected.

Scenario ‘B'

Canada is strong in technology, business and innovation but not all of its efforts are successful. A high standard of living and skills development are sustained through family oriented policies to attract skilled immigrants. Oil and gas revenues are driven back into the development of alternative energy sources while government generously supports R&D and networking activities. Weak marketing is augmented by partnering with those with the requisite expertise.

Scenario ‘C'

RE$EARCH MONEY participated in the ‘C' group in which a gradual deterioration of the economy and foreign-owned resource sector was accompanied by the loss of technology and business talent. Participants developed a scenario in which Canada has managed to maintain a decent standard of living by sustaining its natural environment to boost eco-tourism. Canada attracts high net-worth individuals to retire here to enjoy the natural environment and protect their wealth through a secretive banking system. Resource extraction is accelerated with a "party ‘till it's over" attitude, leading to a positive trade balance. Innovation has become a democratic process in which social sciences are valued more than natural sciences and engineering.

Scenario ‘D'

A lack of R&D support and effective innovation strategies has resulted in an unpredictable economy and an insecure investment climate. After 30 years of social and economic chaos, Canadians are more inward and local in their perspectives as resources are largely depleted and industry is foreign-owned. Agriculture and forestry are key to the economy, supported by government policy and applied research. A strong emphasis on an agrarian-based society threatens to break Canada into self-governing regions.

Thematic Scenario 1

Technological breakthroughs have made energy cheap and largely green around the globe. Innovation has become more important than ever. Decreased energy costs have lowered the cost of transportation and manufacturing, making them more competitive. Smaller firms and data centres are expanding rapidly while the oil sands and Alberta economy has experienced relative decline.

thematic scenario 2

All energy is green due to an international agreement reached in 2020. Nanotechnology has revolutionized many products which can be recycled and upgraded indefinitely. Canada has become a leader in open innovation and is exporting it around the world. The split between urban and rural has become more pronounced. With the decline in demand for oil, Canada has re-invented itself as a value-add economy and society.

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